[March 19, 2017] Three years ago I wrote that the U.S. policy toward North Korea is one of “strategic patience” and that it has been successful if measured pragmatically; it has prevented war.1 Yet, if we measure this U.S. strategy on a scale of decency and morality, it is one of the greatest U.S. leadership failures of the 20th Century.2 News reports now comes to us that the U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said this past Friday that the time for “strategic patience” is over.
It will be of interest to those of us who study senior leadership to follow the words of those leaders of each respective country; especially North Korea, South Korea, and the United States. Others however have a significant say in the effort to keep the North from carrying out its regular threats; the United Nations, Japan, China, and Australia are crucial players in this effort.
“We are exploring a new range of security and diplomatic measures. All options are on the table.” – Rex Tillerson, U.S. Secretary of State
Secretary Tillerson described strategic patience as two decades of failed efforts to persuade North Korea to denuclearize. U.S. President Donald Trump added that North Korea has been “behaving very badly” and accused China of doing little to resolve the crisis over the North’s weapons programs.3 Trump also said that it has been “playing” the United States for years.
“Efforts for North Korea to achieve a peaceful stability for the last two decades have failed to make us safe.” – Rex Tillerson
For those of us outside the Pacific region, there is little historical understanding of the complexities of the region. The U.S. appears to assume that Japan, Australia, and South Korea have the same economic and security concerns. This is not always the case and thus there needs to be great care in how any strategy change is managed by America (or any nation for that matter).
I would be interested to know what U.S. General Vincent Brooks4 has to say since he has the personal experience to know as the senior commander on the ground there in South Korea. I served with Brooks back in 2006-07 in Iraq just as the troop “surge” was beginning. He is one of those extremely intelligent and commonsense generals one rarely finds.
During my service in South Korea the issue was rarely who would win a confrontation with North Korea but how much damage the South would sustain in such a conflict. China was always a wild card (as it is today) and unpredictable. The people of North Korea were also an unknown; would they, for example, support a military force that destroyed their Communist leadership?
There are many unanswered questions regarding North Korea. Secretary Tillerson and the U.S. government will find the situation there adhering to the classic foggy situation – volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity.
I look forward to hearing what Tillerson and the U.S. will put forth as a new strategy.
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- North Korea – a Successful U.S. Strategy: https://www.theleadermaker.com/north-korea-a-successful-u-s-strategy/
- North Korea and Failed U.S. Leadership: https://www.theleadermaker.com/north-korea-failed-u-s-leadership/
- http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tillerson-asia-southkorea-idUSKBN16O07E
- U.S. Army General Vincent Brooks is Commander of the United Nations Command, the Combined Forces Command, and United States Forces Korea (yep, that’s a triple hat command). Having served there, it makes for a complex set of responsibilities and authority. Authorities in this case are derived from the United Nations Armistice of 1953, the United States Government, and the U.S.-South Korean Alliance