[March 4, 2026] We’ve been witnessing a surge in violence in Mexico since the killing of one of the drug cartels’ leaders. As expected, cartel members lashed out with violence at the federal government and local citizens to bring home the message, “don’t mess with us.” But, has Mexico actually changed its domestic strategy?
Historical Context: The “Hugs, Not Bullets” Era (2018–2024)
Under former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), Mexico adopted a non-confrontational strategy known as “abrazos, no balazos” (hugs, not bullets).
This policy emphasized social programs to address the root causes of crime, such as poverty and youth unemployment, rather than large-scale military assaults on cartels.
The idea was to reduce violence by avoiding escalatory tactics that could provoke reprisals, allowing cartels to operate with relative impunity in exchange for lower homicide rates in some areas. Critics argued this led to a surge in overall violence, with homicides rising dramatically and cartels expanding into extortion, human trafficking, and other illicit activities.
This approach was seen as a form of “violent lobbying,” where cartels used targeted attacks to pressure the government into tolerance, effectively negotiating informal truces to maintain drug flows without major disruptions.
AMLO’s administration avoided kingpin arrests or major offensives, partly to prevent the fragmentation and infighting that followed such actions in prior decades (e.g., under President Felipe Calderón’s 2006–2012 “war on drugs,” which resulted in over 100,000 deaths but failed to dismantle cartels).
Instead, the focus was on socioeconomic reforms, like youth apprenticeships and stipends, to deter recruitment into criminal groups. This strategy was criticized for enabling cartel growth, with groups like the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) and Sinaloa Cartel deepening their control over territories and economies.
Shift Under President Claudia Sheinbaum (2024–Present)
Since taking office in October 2024, President Sheinbaum has marked a clear departure from AMLO’s hands-off stance, ramping up direct actions against cartels while insisting it’s not a return to a full “war on drugs.”
Her administration has conducted high-profile operations, including the February 22, 2026, military raid that killed Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes, leader of the CJNG, in Jalisco.
This operation, supported by U.S. intelligence, resulted in the deaths of six other cartel members and triggered widespread reprisal violence across 20 Mexican states, including attacks on security forces and infrastructure.
In the past year alone, Mexican forces have arrested hundreds of cartel operatives, seized tons of drugs, dismantled clandestine labs, and extradited over 100 high-level figures to the U.S.
Despite these aggressive moves, Sheinbaum maintains the strategy prioritizes “peace, not war.” It combines targeted strikes with broader reforms:
- Addressing root causes: Expanding educational opportunities (e.g., adding 330,000 university spots), providing youth stipends and apprenticeships via the “Plan México” initiative, and tackling inequality to reduce cartel recruitment.
- Anti-corruption efforts: Operations like “Operation Swarm” (launched in November 2024) target local politicians and officials colluding with cartels, such as the February 2026 arrests in Tequila, Jalisco, for extorting businesses on behalf of CJNG.
- Intelligence and international cooperation: Enhanced data-driven tactics, including U.S.-led task forces for intelligence sharing, have improved targeting without full-scale invasions. For instance, U.S. support provided detailed “target packages” for the El Mencho operation, though Mexico executed it independently.
This balanced approach avoids all-out war to minimize civilian casualties and economic fallout, such as damage to tourism from cartel reprisals. 16 However, it acknowledges that military action alone has limitations—past “decapitation” strategies often lead to more violence as cartels splinter and fight for control.
Why This Strategy? Key Rationales and Influences
- Avoiding escalation: Direct attacks can provoke “reprisal violence,” as seen post-El Mencho, where cartels aim to force negotiations or truces. The government prepares for long-term battles but seeks to weaken cartels structurally rather than through endless firefights.
- U.S. pressure: The Trump administration has pushed Mexico aggressively, using tariff threats (e.g., 25% on non-USMCA goods in March 2025) and designating CJNG as a terrorist group to compel action. This includes demands for border militarization with 10,000 National Guard troops and joint operations, though Mexico rejects U.S. troops on its soil. Operations like El Mencho’s takedown serve as diplomatic signals to reduce U.S. intervention risks, especially ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup co-hosted by Mexico.
- Internal priorities: Sheinbaum’s data-driven style (proven in reducing Mexico City crime by 50% as mayor) focuses on sustainable results, including disrupting supply chains, gun smuggling, and chemical precursors. The goal is to dismantle networks without creating power vacuums that spawn more violence.
- Challenges: While progress is evident (e.g., improved state capacity and cartel weakening), experts warn that without tackling U.S. demand for drugs, weapon flows south, and deep corruption, cartels will persist. Violence may spike in the short term, but a multidimensional strategy could yield longer-term stability.
Mexico’s government has historically avoided attacks to prevent escalation, but is now incorporating targeted offensives into a holistic strategy under Sheinbaum. This evolution balances confrontation with prevention, driven by domestic needs and external pressures.
We can conclude that the Mexican government has changed its domestic policy regarding drug cartels. Will it work? That question will remain unanswered for many years.
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For a long time now, I’ve thought that Mexico was on the edge of failing as a state. What then do we do? Good question for Gen. satterfield to ponder.
Mexico’s endless cycle of violence and instability, largely driven by powerful drug cartels, is a direct consequence of decades of failed U.S.-backed neoliberal policies that have exacerbated inequality, gutted social safety nets, and left millions in poverty with no choice but to turn to the underground economy for survival. The so-called “War on Drugs,” propped up by American imperialism and militarization, has only empowered these cartels by creating a lucrative black market fueled by insatiable U.S. demand, while corrupt elites in both countries profit off the chaos and refuse to address root causes like fair trade, worker rights, and decriminalization. Until we dismantle capitalist exploitation and prioritize harm reduction over punishment, these problems won’t vanish—they’ll just mutate, claiming more lives in the name of profit and power.
We need to get involved, despite Mexico not trusting us (a problem largely of their own creation) because they just can’t get their act together. I have no idea why, but it seems to always have been this way.
Corruption, Cowardice, and Craziness. 🙏 Pray or them. they need all the help they can get.
Here is the problem. Mexico has experienced economic stagnation since the late 20th century, with GDP growth averaging below 2.5% annually from 1985 to 2018, exacerbated by high inequality, widespread poverty affecting over 50% of the population, and structural issues like corruption and crime that deter investment. Are they just so corrupt, that they cannot ever get ahead?
The ongoing crisis with Mexican cartels represents a failure of Mexico’s federal and state governments and a direct threat to the security of North America. Years of “hugs, not bullets” policies have emboldened criminal cartels, allowing them to establish parallel governance over vast territories. The primary responsibility of a government is to maintain the rule of law and protect its borders from the unchecked flow of fentanyl and human trafficking. This instability requires a much firmer approach, prioritizing military-grade enforcement and intelligence operations to dismantle high-level leadership. Without a commitment to absolute law and order, these organizations will continue to destabilize regional economies and compromise the safety of citizens on both sides of the border. Ultimately, the preservation of national integrity requires treating the cartels not just as common criminals, but as sophisticated insurgent threats that must be neutralized.
The biggest problem you didn’t mention Winston is the corruption within the Mexican government at ALL levels. We have horrendous corruption in America too, mostly in the Democrat Party, especially at the federal and state levels.
Good analysis, Gen. Satterfield. Mexico has long allowed these cartels to operate, mostly with impunity. Now, they reap the rewards.
Mexico’s biggest problem is the illegal drug use in the U.S. Demand is high. Profits are high. Criminals figured this out and are using the weak country of Mexico – located on our doorstep – to push those drugs. The U.S. needs to push a program that discourages illegal drug use. Illegal or maybe illicit.