[December 18, 2022] Peter Zeihan is a geopolitical analyst and author. He also posts to YouTube about once a day and focuses on China and other modern-day issues affecting the world. My article today concerns Zeihan’s thoughts on recent developments in China regarding how its leadership deals with COVID.
There is a situation in China with COVID that is getting very sketchy very fast. The Chinese, in reaction to the last November and early December mass protests that have involved millions of people, have decided to start loosening their regulations on social control that are COVID-related. This is leading to a fast outbreak that will be difficult to put a number on.
There is no room for provincial and local governments to set and lessen their restrictions for the first time. And we are seeing a general mobilization of the health system across China to deal with the anticipated surge in cases, and it’s wildly insufficient. What we’re seeing is very similar to what the United States went through back when we had our Omicron outbreak in January and February 2022.
Lots of Chinese businesses and medical testing facilities are closed because they cannot find enough workers who are not infected. China’s data has always been sketchy at best, and now they’re not even attempting to generate data in many cases. They are also starting to see a shortage of everyday Pharmacy items and drugs.
The scale of what is coming is challenging to wrap our minds around. The Chinese healthcare system is not good at keeping people healthy or good at critical care. In three years, the U.S. lost over a million citizens over three years of the epidemic. To date, the losses of Chinese citizens have been minuscule because of COVID lockdowns, keeping the population away from the virus.
The Chinese population is not as healthy as the American population. On average, the Chinese population is older and more Chinese are diabetic than Americans. And diabetes has generally proven to be the number one comorbidity factor for COVID. The American COVID experience was spread out over three years and in waves, and after a few months, there were very effective vaccines that helped control the death rate. Nearly all Americans have been exposed. The Chinese don’t have that exposure. To make matters worse, the Chinese vaccine was barely effective and only against the original virus.
Cutting the exposure of the Chinese population all at once and with ineffective vaccines means millions of deaths in a relatively short period.
The Chinese exposure was compressed into just a few weeks and was kicked off by several hundred super spreader events during the protests.
In the face of massive unrest, Chairman Xi has allowed fewer restrictions. He is now passing the buck to local and provincial governments, allowing them to loosen or tighten policies. The problem with the Chinese cult of personality system, Xi, could very quickly lead to a crisis of confidence in the government’s ability to function because it is no longer clear who is pulling the shots.
Odds are we will see a lot of broad-scale incompetence in China because Xi has spent the last 10 years purging the political system of anyone capable of conscious thought. What will happen next is the big question. But we know that the Chinese manufacturing sector will be offline for at least the next three or four months. We are in the very early days of this. How it will play out on the political front is what is the real threat to China itself.
See the full episode here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0BNUF9ItmQ
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I’ve been reading a bunch of papers which predict the fall of China due to collapsing population and also the impact of Covid policy openings. As well, the high dependency of China on other nations. Peter Z has a good perspective on China. Keep us informed, Gen. Satterfield. 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Millions of Chinese are about to die and the world is watching. This will be the real test for the CCP and Communist ideology. The lessons of the 20th century where 100+ million died because of Communism have been ignored.
Eek! Haven’t heard this before in the news media and, of course, they will hide any real numbers because they love communism.
Indeed, our media lives not just Communism but the tyranny of despots generally. Same for political progressives (who are actually regressive).
Let’s wait and see. There is nothing the world will be able to do. Gen. Satterfield, I do appreciate you reminding us of the great destruction Communism has done in the world. Now, we are seeing a repeat.
Scary, very scary about what is about to unfold in China. Will the Communist system come crashing down? Or will things go normal in a few weeks? Whatever happens, it’s going to be wild, fast, and shocking. It’s even possible that dictator for life Xi will fall from power. If that happens, all hell will break loose and China will spin apart.
Welcome The Observer. Great comment.
Peter Zeihan is a smart guy. Glad he is on our side. 👀
That is the 64 dollar question.
Yep, will China survive in its current form? Highly unlikely. They will be forced to focus a lot of their resources into taking care of their fast-aging population. Or they could just let them die and say they did their best. What will it be?
Chinese Economy & Medical System Face Crisis Month | Death Rates High\
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovVyrFQNfwk
Tony at this link tells us that the number of deaths are predicted to be between 650k to 1.5million. Now, let’s sit back and wait a few months and see how this prediction bears out. I think the number of deaths might be more. But also note that Chinese communist propaganda will never let us know the true figure.
Thank you Kerry for this link. I listened to the video and was surprised a bit.
good artcle
China has not reported any COVID deaths since Dec. 7, when it abruptly ended most restrictions key to a zero-COVID tolerance policy following unprecedented public protests. The strategy had been championed by President Xi Jinping. As part of the easing of the zero-COVID curbs, mass testing for the virus has ended, casting doubt on whether official case numbers can capture the full scale of the outbreak. China reported some 2,097 new symptomatic COVID infections on Dec. 17. China doesn’t give us reliable numbers, go figure.
Bless General Satterfield for giving us a look into what China is about to happen.
The next few weeks will tell us a lot about China. Can their highly despotic, tyrannical system survive the threat of the COVID virus? Or will China collapse?
I like this guy, Peter Zeihan. Seems pretty darn smart.
China’s COVID case “explosion” not due to relaxed rules, WHO says, as 1st deaths reported since easing
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-covid-cases-explosion-not-due-to-zero-covid-lifting-who-deaths-reported/
Another perspective from WHO (who are whacko marxists).
China is facing its biggest public health challenge since the start of the coronavirus pandemic more than three years ago. Nine days after the government abruptly abandoned its draconian “zero-COVID” policy, halting mandatory mass-testing and forcible quarantines, COVID-19 is once again spreading like wildfire across the vast country.
What’s next? How many millions will die and what will happen to despot Chairman Xi? Will China collapse?
Hi Chopper, welcome to Gen. Satterfield’s leadership blog. We hope you can contribute to the dicsussion of those topics that affect us all. If you can, run ideas by us and we will give positive feed back.
Welcome Chopper!!!!!
Thanks guys! Glad to be here 😊
Yes, a new but wrong perspective by the WHO.
“The explosion of cases in China is not due to the lifting of COVID restrictions,” said the WHO’s head of emergency programs, Dr. Mike Ryan. “The explosion of cases in China had started long before any easing of the zero-COVID policy.”
Gen. Satterfield, thanks for bringing this to our attention. Great to have another perspective on China and the impact of their zero COVID policy and how loosening of their controls will impact their overall population. Millions of deaths? Amazing.
Wow, nice.
Yes, and I’ve too been listening to Peter Zeihan for some time now.✔
Excellent thinker and if you can, watch his videos.