The Near Future of the Ukraine War [Updated]

By | January 17, 2023

[January 22, 2023]  The United States must tell Vladimir Putin that he will not win this war, that we will ensure that happens, and that we will assist Russia in their withdrawal.  Anything else from the West means we are now responsible for the death of tens of thousands of more soldiers and civilians.

[January 17, 2023]  What will happen in the Ukraine War is unknowable.  But we can look out and make some educated guesses.  The U.S. military is monitoring this war closely and learning some valuable lessons.  Here are some things we think will happen over the next few months.

We now know that the liberation of Crimea is the decisive phase of the Ukraine War.  Ukraine must be made whole again after Russia’s capture and annexation of Crimea in 2014.

This Winter, the Ukrainians will be pounding away at the Russian logistics and transportation networks leading into Crimea.  It’s been working well, along with Russia’s inconsistent ability to synchronize its supply efforts.

Ukrainian forces are already hitting targets inside Melitopol and Mariupol (southeast Ukraine, through which Russian logistics run) to sever the land bridge between Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine and the Crimean peninsula.  That will be a critical part that leads to conditions for capturing Crimea, probably by Summer this year.

Using more sophisticated and lethal drones, partisans, and longer-ranged and more accurate weaponry from the West to disrupt the Russian transport system is the key, so the Russians cannot move new equipment, soldiers, supplies, food, and ammunition into Crimea.

The Russian Black Sea Fleet is still terrified of Ukrainian anti-ship missiles.  The fleet hardly ever comes out, and Ukraine does not even have a navy.  And because the fleet stays so close to Crimea, they are not much help in protecting Crimea.  The Russian Air Force has also largely retreated from the skies over Ukraine and now only launched air-to-ground missiles from within Russia proper.

Retired U.S. General David Petraeus believes that Ukrainian forces have “achieved irreversible momentum.”  There is no going back to where Russia has a significant advantage.  Petraeus says he does not see any way for Russia to turn this around.  There are still many months of hard fighting ahead, with Russia pounding innocent civilians with artillery and drone attacks.  And the Russian mobilization will be inadequate to fill the gaps of losses with adequately trained, well-led troops.

The Russians still have not fixed the main problems within their command structure, logistics, transportation, and ability to conduct joint operations.  As long as the West continues to provide Ukraine with what we said we would do, and the economic sanctions and boycotts remain in place, Russia will not be able to change the war’s momentum.

Even if Russia mobilizes another half a million men, they cannot magically put them on the battlefield and be an effective fighting force.  There is no current effective training program for them or equipment to equip these forces.

Tactical nuclear weapon use by Russia is improbable because it would be ineffective in the course of the war, and its use will generate greater hostility to Russia.  This would trigger further sanctions and possible criminal violations of war that the UN oversees.

The U.S. and NATO allies have yet to state publically that Ukraine can win the war.  If they do, this will significantly boost Ukraine’s efforts on the battlefield.  It is interesting to note that the Ukraine War has strengthened NATO, an unexpected benefit to the Russian invasion.

China remains a wild card in the war, at least superficially supporting Russia, but that may change since the Chinese are impressive fence sitters and fear losing face by being seen to back the wrong dog in the fight.  Belarus is less of a wild card but may be a factor in the battle in northern Ukraine.

It is impressive what the Ukrainian forces have accomplished.  Russian soldiers are paying a heavy price for this and will continue to pay.

No one knows how long the war will last or the consequences for Russia or Ukraine.  But we know that Ukraine will never be secure or safe or able to rebuild its economy as long as Russia controls Crimea

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Author: Douglas R. Satterfield

Hello. I'm Doug and I provide at least one article every day on some leadership topic. I welcome comments and also guests who would like to write an article. Thanks for reading my blog.

31 thoughts on “The Near Future of the Ukraine War [Updated]

  1. British Citizen

    General Satterfield, you are one of the bravest to stand up and finally someone from the USA to say what needs to be said.

    Reply
  2. José Luis Rodriguez

    Thank you for the update. Please keep this feature and I recommend at least monthly or more frequent updates.

    Reply
  3. Liz at Home

    Thank you Gen. Satterfield for looking out into the near future regarding the Ukraine War. I support Ukraine because they are fighting one of the last vestiges of Communism. Only China to go.

    Reply
    1. Emma Archambeau

      ❤❤❤✔ Yes, I’m no expert here and having Gen. Satterfield give me an update, is appreciated.

      Reply
  4. Rev. Michael Cain

    Pray for the peoples of Ukraine. 🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻

    Reply
      1. True Believer

        Why hasn’t Pootin been charged with war crimes. Targeting civiliians! Why not?

        Reply
        1. mainer

          War crimes are controlled by the UN and Russia and China each have veto power. So any articles that say Putin is a war criminal will be vetoed by one or both of these entities. So don’t expect much. Big countries can do as they wish. Viva la Ukraine.

          Reply
  5. Chuck USA

    God blesses urkraine because they do the right move from Russia never against any country you are want peace always they are independence country but Putin said the power in is hand you are hell god he is the one no one else God bless urkraine amen

    Reply
  6. JC

    dear people of ukraine. We also think of you in these difficult days of war. I believe that freedom takes people and costs money. but better once the pain and difficulty. finally freedom and the free people in their own country. respect for the people of Ukraine and the heroes of the Ukrainian nation . Slava okraina 👊👊🇺🇦🇺🇦🇽🇰🇽🇰

    Reply
      1. Shawn C. Stolarz

        May the cries of the people of Dnipro reach the heavens. May the Infant of Prague on whose feast day the infamous attack took place, drive the Russians out of Ukraine for good. May Putin, Lavrov, Shoigu, Gerosimov and Surovikin be tried for war crimes. How many 9/11s must Ukraine endure before it’s given weapons (tanks, F16s, artillery) to push the Russians out of Ukraine?

        Reply
  7. Ron C.

    There will be no honour lost in Ukraine if they lose the war but Russia will be a pariah state forever.

    Reply
  8. Pen Q

    I’m now hearing that Russia is planning on mobilizing another half a million men on top of the 300k. Wow, now that is going to destroy Russia from the inside. They already don’t have enough men. But 500k with guns is a lot of bodis and dangerous.

    Reply
  9. docwatson

    Let’s be upfront about the “future” of any war. And Gen. Doug Satterfield makes it clear in his first para, “What will happen in the Ukraine War is unknowable. But we can look out and make some educated guesses. ” But if anyone is going to comment, I’ll read his look at the war first.

    Reply
    1. Julia

      Thank you docwatson. We are thinking alike here. The entire problem from an American point of view is that the Biden-Harris Administration is completely incompetent when it comes to national defense. Just look at the idiots (and traitors) they put in charge.

      Reply
  10. Max Foster

    Folks, I know this is a bit off topic but did you see the Martin Luther King Jr. statue in Washington DC (the news of it)? If you saw it personally or in pix, then you will immediately think like I did, it is an embarrassment. American Greatness (the place Gen. Satterfield got today’s daily favorites from) has an article on this issue. Hint, it reminds me of arms (of MLK) hold a big dick. If you think otherwise, let me know.https://amgreatness.com/2023/01/16/bostons-mlk-statue-is-a-woke-embarrassment/

    Reply
  11. Tomas Clooney

    Great update about what the future of the Ukraine War will possibly occur.

    Reply
    1. rjsmithers

      THat, my friend, is what Gen. Satterfield does to help cut through the clutter of details and media distortion and media propaganda. Hey, the good news is that gas prices are down and that is unexpected.

      Reply
      1. Stacey Borden

        Hi rj, the reason gas prices are down is because the world is slipping into a recession. And politicians worldwide have turned a blind eye to how that will impact their citizens. One more reason, in America, to get rid of the deep state like Pres. Trump started and that Biden rejects (because they keep him in power).

        Reply
    2. Dead Pool Guy

      Exactly why I read this leadership blog. Finding responsibility and pursuing the truth. Well, what else is there?

      Reply

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