[March 19, 2023] Can we predict the outcome of the Ukraine War? Nearly 13 months into the war and the outcome is still uncertain, so even an informed prediction will be suspect. Additionally, extensive Western propaganda, state secrets, and an unofficial and unstable coalition surrounding Ukraine, all combine to make a mess out of any prediction.
The Ukraine military has performed much better than expected, and the Russians have stumbled. Both have strong leaders determined to see the war to a conclusion in their best interests. If the war were only between these two nations, the outcome would be a Russian victory; that is reasonably certain.
However, the West has made it their business by supplying equipment, ammunition, intelligence, tactical and strategic advice, and aided in propagandizing the war to benefit Ukraine’s war effort. The question not asked is what are the strategic goals of the West and are those goals reasonable and achievable, as well are they compatible with Ukraine’s goals. That question has not been answered.
There are two major views on how the war will end. On one side, the U.S. Government and the West argue that Ukraine will win if we supply them with what they need to prosecute the war. The other side argues that Ukraine will lose and lose badly no matter what the West does to support Ukraine.
From the perspective of the West, we have yet to define “win” and “lose” in the context of this war. The Ukrainian and Russian governments have done a better job defining the ends, but since the West plays such a crucial role, what we have to say counts. Ultimately, the victor will set the terms.
The first viewpoint comes from the West and the U.S. Government, the face of it being GEN David Petraeus, that says Russia is a paper tiger, has poor logistics, an inept army (a scared navy and air force), cannot conduct offensive combined-arms operations, a poor national economy, a corrupt military system, and Russia is running low on ammunition and soldiers. And the Ukrainians are running circles around the Russians. In time, Ukraine will win by ejecting Russia from all of Ukraine, including Crimea.
The second viewpoint comes from the COL Doug MacGregor faction, which says Ukraine is about to be annihilated. He believes the end is inevitable and that the Russians have established the conditions in eastern Ukraine to destroy what is left of the main elements of Ukraine’s army and force the Zelenskyy government to surrender or collapse. As soon as the Spring season gives us dryer ground so that tanks can operate effectively off-road, the much-anticipated Russian offensive will begin, which will be decisive. The war will be over by Summer this year, and Russia will win. And the U.S. government knows this and is not being straightforward with the world.
Who will win the Ukraine War? The Russian Spring offensive will determine the answer to that question because Ukraine can win only if they can stop it.
Please read my books:
Ukraine will win! 🇺🇸
Got that right. 🇺🇦 🇺🇦 🇺🇦 🇺🇦 love Ukraine.
Of course there is no known outcome we can know without more info. Sad.
Bravo Slovakia! Poland, I understand, is preparing to send jets and so is Denmark (F16). In Denmark it’s also discussed to invite Ukranian pilots to start F16 training. But I can’t be the only wondering if a bus load of A-10s couldn’t help Ukraine more? We must supply Ukraine with more and more. So what if we deplete our stocks of ammunition and aircraft. We must ensure the utter destruction of Russia once and for all. The leaders of Russia have taken their peoples down a terrible path and there must be pain involved while taking them down so that this is never repeated.
While I agree with much of what you write, I’m not so sure this is a good medium to long term strategy in dealing with the Russian government.
There is nothing distressing about seeing invaders die. What happened to the famous and feared Spetznaz? Dead on the field of battle before they could do any real damage. The Russian Army was always feared to be tough, I’ve seen now it was false bravado, no substance at all. The Ukrainians however are tough, tenacious and fighting to expel an illegal invasion.
Got that right, False Idols. Welcome to Gen. Satterfield’s leadership blog. You will enjoy the articles and this leadership forums.
God bless Ukraine 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
Gen. Satterfield, these updates are very helpful. If you could bring them to us more often, it would be of value to followers of the war, like me.
Yeah, just kick em in the ass
old warrior, you always make me laugh. I’m with you that Russia needs its ass kicked all over the battlefield. But, saying so is easy and we can do so from our armchairs in a heated home and watch tv when we tire of pontificating about the war. Lives are lost, homes destroyed and the economies of Russia, Ukraine, and the West are taking a big hit now. And who gains? China.
The communist Chinese government is a leech on the buttocks of the world. 👍
Well, we will see how well that works or not. I’m inclined to believe the situation is far more complex and difficult that we can imagine. War is hard. War is destructive. There is a psychological component that we are not seeing at this point. That is why leadership is so important.
Thanks for the update. Strange that we only see one side of the story.
This is what propaganda is all about. The “West” – as Gen. Satterfield – notes, is waging a hard propaganda campaign based on a sense of moral duty, therefore everything is on the table. THe problem with this is, of course, that you can easily be misled. That is what we see in the media — that Russia is corrupt, inept, and compromised and will lose. Ukraine is the best thing since sliced bread. Not.
Yes, and Gen. Satterfield has done a good job of laying out the two main views on how the Ukraine war will end. No one knows. That is the bottom line.
Propaganda is tough to unravel because it includes 98% truth. what is the falsehood within it?
Good point Goalie. For those who study propaganda, we are not surprised at all. 😎